3 Horrific Risks To The Stock Market

A number of events, analysts say, could quickly trip up the post-election surge in U.S. stocks.

“The market is wading through all the negatives of his campaign, and (economic growth) is what we are focused on,” she said. “But if history is any guide, the honeymoon always ends.”

Here are some of the possible events that could give investors pause:

1. Disappointment in Trump

The first test will likely come in January, when Trump is inaugurated as president and investors look for the government to follow through on promised tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation. Hopes for those policies have spurred both the large-cap and small-cap indexes to record highs in the last few weeks.

“On some level, investors are flying a little blind – We are in many cases speculating about the details,” said Ron Temple, co-head of multi asset and head of U.S. equity at Lazard Asset Management.

It’s “reasonable to expect a bit of a pause as people realize we do not know the details of the tax plan,” Temple said, adding that he is generally optimistic on the backdrop for stocks.

Republicans will have control of both chambers of Congress as Trump begins his presidency, raising hopes that his proposals will be enacted.

2. A loss of momentum

As stocks have unrelentingly pushed higher since the election, traders have pointed to support from positive momentum in one of the best months of the year for stocks. A concern would be if an event triggers a turnaround in sentiment, especially as confidence has climbed to multi-month highs.

“Confidence is very, very short lived – If something occurs in the next couple months, we could see confidence wane quickly,” said Lance Roberts, chief investment strategist at advisory firm Clarity Financial.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index leaped past expectations Friday to its highest since January 2015. Citi’s U.S. economic surprise index has also been on the rise since late October.

“I do believe President-elect Trump’s goal is to grow out the economy,” Temple said. “Unfortunately the approach of negotiating via Twitter is somewhat the opposite of that tactic … I do worry that governing by Twitter is problematic, a sub-optimal approach to governing and (inspiring) confidence.”

Since the election, Trump has used Twitter to attack companies such as Lockheed Martin and to take a tough line on U.S. relations with China.

3. A rising dollar

Following the election, the U.S. dollar index jumped to its highest in more than a decade, raising concerns for U.S. firms that sell products overseas.

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Stock Market To Melt Up

They do explain that the stock market right now is in what could be called a eighth innings of a nine innings move. This can be lethal, and leave investors behind, but it can also create panic and a bit rounding top pattern latter on.

There really is no reason to panic just yet, but this bull market seems to just keep chugging along without a care in the world. The reason melt up continues is that you get lots of novice investors who decide they are going to miss out and hop in, like lemmings one after the other.

There could be some choppy periods in the meantime. BofA’s year-end target for the S&P 500 is 2,300. It was just 30 points below that Monday.

It could be very rough and treacherous waters when Donald Trump gets into the White House. No one knows what he is going to do. You have a businessman, who has never been in politics or the White House running a country. That thought has investors very panicked and slightly on edge.

The positive sign to that coin is that he is going to fix real estate, after the sub prime mess, and he is going to boost fiscal spending and pump money into infrastructure and jobs. All the while he is going to keep the cheap jobs out of America. Will that work? We do not know, but we will soon find out. That is probably going to be a positive for companies on the U.S. shore. And if that is going to be positive for them, and earnings go up, that means the stock market is likely to go up alongside it.

A lot of the bigger hedges funds that did well in 2016 are positioned for the market to go up to new highs. Yet, the main concern with their constituents is that the stock market at the end of 2016, when Trump won the elections, went up too high and too fast.

As soon as Trump gets in, we will find out if he wants to play with the big boys, or just cry and tweet all day long. At the end of the day, investors like the notion of a TRUMP led country, especially those in the financial and loans industries. If that can get the boost they need, that will only start to spill over into other areas, and be quite modest for investors and the stock market.

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There A Lightning Speed Stock Market

The months of August and September are notorious for dramatic declines in the stock market, and there are a select few analysts who are sending out a dire warning investors to be mentally and financially ready when if it does eventuate!

Stocks fell last week after a combination of weak retail earnings and bank stock performance spooked some investors.

“In the dog days of summer, we can get hit with lightning speed sell-offs, if we go back over 40 years, August and September have been notorious for seeing large and dramatic sell offs in the market.�

Rather than join the masses of scared investors in the next downturn, some analysts are seeing the other side of the coin. Meaning they are recommending clients to view it as a buying opportunity. That means having some cash available, and stock ideas on hand that could be put to work in a “cool and methodical” way.

Big Wall St, guru type investors have not been spooked by the sell-off last week. There are charitable trust took action and purchased stocks like Nvidia and Activision Blizzard on weakness. These are just some ideas going forward while market constituents watch the ebbs and flow with the market.

Despite the fact that everyone was freaking out, the positive backdrop for stocks didn’t change. We have low inflation, low interest rates, good earnings and a weak dollar. So astute investors realise that sort of market environment can be very healthy in these dire times. Sometimes you have to look past the trees to see the forest!

Low inflation means that earnings for companies could be worth more in the future. Often considered by some as to be a huge wrapped up Christmas gift, as high inflation could erode the long-term value case for equities.

Additionally, low interest rates can act as a positive catalyst to spur business in the U.S., and prompt investors to buy stocks with strong dividends. There are no guarantees but the role of this article is to try and help readers weigh up the positives and negatives and make informed decisions from that.

Regardless of the positive implications of interest rates or inflation, some traders still have reservations. The first on the list would be that Congress is not in session currently. In this perspective, both sides of the aisle are at odds with President Trump. Thus, the market could move higher while Congress is not in session, and then be impacted negatively when it reconvenes in September. Hedge fund managers do watch the events in congress to make important decisions with their trades. So that might mean the stock market sits on shaky ground the next few months.